Wealth is evidently not the good we are seeking; for it is merely useful and for the sake of something else.I want to make a difference in the world. It seems like a simple goal. When you think about what it actually means though, it is anything but simple.
-- Aristotle
The decision to build the dam was taken by the Ugandan Development Commission. The members of the Ugandan Development Commission can take credit for building the dam. Had the dam not been built though, they would likely have borrowed money for a different project. They can only take credit for making a difference to the extent that their decision to build the dam where they did, created a bigger difference than any alternative project. The reminder, and majority, of the difference should be credited to the parties that provided the funding to the Ugandan Development Commission. Credit should thus be given to the Government, for providing loan guarantees, and the World Bank, for providing loans. It was only through their combined action that the dam went ahead. It doesn't seem possible to partition this credit between the Government and the World Bank, both of them had to perform their roles for the project to succeed. Thus, the politician, unlike the workers and the contractors, did play a key role in making the difference after all. At the World Bank it was the North African head that approved the loan that made the difference. Although, the extent of this difference is likely to depend on whether they have a floating budget, or as is more likely, a fixed budget that requires reigning in funding from other projects. In thinking about the benefits of the dam, we need to keep in mind that from all the good it creates, we need to subtract the costs of repaying the loans.
We could claim that it was the people that voted for the politician, the governments that appointed the World Bank board, or even the parties that organized Bretton Woods conference that created the World Bank, that made the difference. We may however now be at the point of obscurity. Voting and the establishment of the Bretton Woods institutions took place without any knowledge or consideration being given to the dam. And yet, maybe it still makes sense to see them as being what ultimately made the difference.
In this supposedly simple example, thinking about what made the difference was confusing and contradictory. To make progress we need a more rigorous framework. This will make it possible to think about the issues more clearly.
Utility functions are a valuable concept. However, they need to be used with great care. In particular utility functions always exist within a particular frame of reference, and measurements made using a particular utility function are only valid within that frame of reference. It is important to realize that a ranking of preferences for states of the world according to one frame need not be valid in another. What this means is aggregating values measured using the UN Human Development Index creates a very poor scale for trying to make decisions intended to maximize the output of the US economy; while the GDP scale is equally inapplicable to making decisions intended to maximize individual well being. The former point is well understood, the later is sometimes missed.
Individuals have utility functions that map from the state of the world to an internal scale the individual uses for measuring, presumably, their happiness.
Let ui'(w') = change in utility for individual i of action w'
Notation. In all of our functions there will typically be an additional unstated argument, the current state of the world, w∈W.
Let gi(w') = gross effect on utility for individual i of action w'
The meaning of "gross effect" involves some hand-waving. It is intended to capture a naive sense of the effects of the action. It fails to consider how actions taken change the actions of others and how this impacts utility.
Then ui'("we accept job A") - ui'("we decline job A") = gi("self in job A") - gi("person 2 in job A") + gi("person 2 in job B") - gi("person 3 in job B") + gi("person 3 in job C") - gi("person 4 in job C") ...
This leaves us with a difficulty. Not only is this equation potentially infinite, but nearly all the people involved, and the other jobs, are unknown. In general, it doesn't appear tractable, but we can consider several common special cases.
ui'("we accept job A") - ui'("we decline job A") = gi("self in job A") - gi("person n in job M")In which job M is considered the last job in the field, and we are assuming a utility of zero for person n switching to some other field or leaving the labor market. We have a naive model in which we don't look at the possibility of additional jobs being created. The difference made here is the difference between how you might perform the job and the least worthy candidate able to enter the field.
An example of having orthogonal goals to everyone else is if you are a biology researcher, and your goal is to see science performed with as few animals killed as possible. The difference you make is the difference between the number of animals you kill, and the number killed by the researcher with the worst presentable skill level able to land a job.
ui'("we accept job A") - ui'("we decline job A") = gi("self in job A") - gi("person n in job M")An example of this is working as a researcher on HIV/AIDS. Suppose finding a cure for HIV/AIDS is your goal in life. The nature of research is such that we can reasonably assume researchers will perform a similar amount of research in either their first or second choice positions. Thus working as a HIV/AIDS researcher you make a contribution equal to the difference between your research abilities, and the worst presentable level of research ability able to land a job.
ui'("we accept job A") - ui'("we decline job A") = gi("self in job A") - gi("person 2 in job A")The difference made becomes the difference between how you might perform the job and the next best candidate. This difference can be substantial if the difference in utility functions is based on values.
Consider the situation faced by an animal rights activist contemplating working in a slaughter house. Their utility function might place a heavy value on exposing the cruelty taking place in such an establishment, and little value on most other forms of manual labor. Taking this position would thus allow them to document and expose the cruelty taking place, in contrast to the behavior of the second best candidate.
ui'("we accept job A") - ui'("we accept job X")
= (gi("self in job A") - gi("person 2 in job A") + gi("person 2 in job B") - gi("person 3 in job B") + gi("person 3 in job C") - gi("person 4 in job C") ...) - (gi("self in job X") - gi("person 2' in job X") + gi("person 2' in job Y") - gi("person 3' in job Y") + gi("person 3' in job Z") - gi("person 4' in job Z") ...)
= (gi("self in job A") - gi("person 2 in job A")) - (gi("self in job X") - (gi("person 2' in job X")) + (gi("person 2 in job B") - gi("person 3 in job B")) - (gi("person 2' in job Y") - (gi("person 3' in job Y")) + (gi("person 3 in job C") - gi("person 4 in job C")) - (gi("person 3' in job Z") - gi("person 4' in job Z")) ...
We assume the other candidates don't switch between fields. The other candidates for the job are unknown, as are the positions they might occupy apart from the two jobs we are considering. Each pair of terms represents the difference between 1st and 2nd choice candidates for a position, with alternate pairs having alternate signs. Since nothing is known about any of the candidates, or positions, we can make the reasonable assumption that on average all of the unknown terms will cancel out.
ui'("we accept job A") - ui'("we accept job X") = (gi("self in job A") - gi("person 2 in job A")) - (gi("self in job X") - (gi("person 2' in job X"))
Unlike the unknown terms, cancellation of the four initial terms will not occur. This is because of the knowledge we possess of ourselves. In particular, we have knowledge of how our own skill level and values stack up and influence utility, relative to those of some unknown alternative candidate. In terms of skill level we know whether our actual skill level is above or below the apparent skill level we are able to present at the interview. In terms of values, we know whether our values are different than the otherwise expected best candidate, and can estimate the impact of this on situations in which we have the autonomy to be able to make decisions concordant with our values. To maximize utility it is incumbent to take the position that provides the biggest expected difference in utility between yourself and the alternative candidate.
Consider skill. Imagine you work as a fundraiser, and your goal in life is to fight racism. You know you are not very good at fundraising, but you can readily get jobs doing fundraising. This is because you have a glowing letter of recommendation from the guru of fundraising. This is the result of having been best friends in high school. If you land a job doing fundraising for an anti-racist group, it is going to be counter productive to your aims, because some other candidate could have done a better job. Mathematically, your best option, in order to achieve your goals, would be to accept a fundraising position working for the Ku Klux Klan.
Now consider, the role played by values. Imagine you are an advertising executive, and your only goal in life is to encourage more women to study math and science. You have considerable latitude in jobs regarding the images used in advertising campaigns. In order to achieve your goals, you would want to take a position at a technology company, and then shaped by your values, project images of women as science and technology leaders. If the alternative candidate had taken this position, and you had taken a position working for a bagel manufacturer, these images would never have existed. Jobs that provide latitude in making decisions offer the possibility of creating real change, as long as your values differ from those of the typical candidate.
The job market is a market. In our simplified analysis, we have been ignoring the full implications of this. What employers are purchasing is a commodity called labor which they measure using their own particular utility function and seek to acquire at the lowest possible price. Different people may provide different quantities of labor to their employer. The employer is willing to vary the number of people hired in order to minimize labor costs. A more detailed analysis also needs to consider elasticities associated with employment in a particular field. A decision to switch fields can be expected to impact wages and indirectly the number of positions available. Hopefully these are all second order effects.
Making a difference when deciding on a job or field:
Making at difference at work:
The Peace Corps has a fixed number of positions, and they get a lot more applicants than the number of positions available. The difference you can make by joining the Peace Corps is thus at best the difference between the contribution you will make and the least qualified applicant accepted. In most cases the difference is likely to be fairly small. The one exception would be if you have a particular skill that allows you to make a much bigger contribution to your utility function than most other candidates. For instance if your utility function is to combat global poverty, and you are an expert on small scale irrigation, then a Peace Corps posting that allows you to make use your expertise could make a real difference.
In this case their isn't an alternative candidate. Consequently, if your utility function involves performing The Lord's work, a decision to become a priest offers the potential to make a huge difference.
Assuming they have an oversupply of qualified medical personnel, and these eligible personnel are all equally good at addressing common developing world illnesses, taking a position with MSF is, like the Peace Corps, unlikely to make a significant difference.
On the other hand, making a substantial donation to MSF is likely to make a significant difference. It enables them to take on additional personnel that they otherwise couldn't. The credit for making this difference flows to the person that made the donation, not the healthcare worker.
I spent a month in Tanzania doing HIV/AIDS education with them. This was too short a time to make a difference. Had it been six months though, I could have made a real difference. This is because, unlike the Peace Corps or MSF, it is work that otherwise wouldn't have occurred.
Given the cost of this program, especially the airfares, an even bigger difference could probably be made by taking the money that would be spent, and giving it to an organization specializing in HIV/AIDS education, who can then use it to recruit and deploy the best candidate.
Each of the above was started by one or just a few people. They started small, created an organization, and discovered revenue streams that allowed them to grow. Thus, key to creating a difference at this scale would appear to be:
For now, we will consider just the last two examples:
The difficulty with science and technology is ensuring the difference you make is positive in terms of your utility function. For instance, a lot of science and technology also has direct or indirect military applications. And if you are concerned by global poverty, a lot of technology just isn't applicable, or able to reach the poor.
Nobody was ever awarded a Nobel prize for eradicating smallpox. Most of the relatively sparse literature on smallpox eradication gives the credit to D. A. Henderson who managed the WHO eradication program. But this was simply a job. He didn't even want to head the WHO smallpox eradication program. He took the position only because he was told if he didn't, he would loose his existing position at the CDC. If D. A. Henderson hadn't taken this job, somebody else would have, and smallpox would still likely have been eradication. The person that really deserves the credit for the eradication of smallpox came earlier. That person was Viktor Zhdanov, Soviet Deputy Minister for Health. He initially proposed and championed the effort to eradicate smallpox. He got the other delegates at the 12th World Health Assembly in 1958 to agree to a WHO led smallpox eradication program. It was Viktor Zhdanov that set things in motion, and D. A. Henderson merely followed.
So, who is Viktor Zhdanov? Here I am, rapidly concluding he might be the greatest person of the last hundred years, and yet he is a nobody. He appears to have made a huge difference in the world, and yet doing a google on his name turns up next to nothing. According to google, even I, am more important than him. My hero? My role model? But who is he? Is he alive or dead? Where is he buried? Does he like to drink lots of vodka? Why hasn't anyone written a book on him? Important questions. How can I emulate somebody when I don't know anything about them?
And what if my hero lies deeper? Maybe it was someone else within the Soviet Department of Health that came up with the idea for eradicating smallpox, and they then gave the plans to Viktor Zhdanov. Perhaps my role model, and the greatest person of the last hundred years, was an employee of the Soviet Department of Health, called, say, Natasha Bibanov. I don't know her real name. How can I emulate somebody when I don't know their name? What where her goals? Did she share a similar utility function to me? Or did she propose plans to eradicate smallpox to her boss, simply so that she would be promoted and obtain one of those special blue passes that allow the party elite access to the bread shop on Wednesdays?
How frustrating, the greatest event of the last hundred years, and I am not even sure who was responsible. Nor do I know if Natasha Bibanov simply disliked eating stale bread with her borsch, or if she was driven by a deep love of humanity and poured their entire heart, soul, and passion into a daring effort to successfully save the lives of hundreds of millions of people.
I want to emulate the passionate, fictionalized, Natasha Bibanov. I want a bumper sticker on my car that reads "What would Natasha Bibanov do?". I want to learn how to identify the levers of change, and pull them. I know I won't be anywhere near as successful as she was, but I still want do what I can. So long as I make a difference, even a small one, I too will be happy to die in obscurity.